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[Tempatan]
Keputusan PRK Rompin : Majoriti undi BN merosot
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BN should not take comfort in Rompin victory, says analyst BY SHERIDAN MAHAVERA AND MOHD FARHAN DARWIS Published: 6 May 2015 9:00 AM
Barisan Nasional candidate Datuk Hasan Arifin (centre) retained the Rompin seat for the coalition but lost a number of votes to PAS. – The Malaysian Insider pic by Najjua Zulkefli, May 6, 2015.Barisan Nasional (BN) won 6,244 votes fewer in the Rompin by-election yesterday than it did in the 13th general election (GE13) two years ago.
But that’s not the only fact that should worry BN strategists.
This time, their candidate Datuk Hassan Ariffin managed to obtain 61% of the votes, just 5% shy of the 66% the ruling coalition received in GE13.
The percentage might seem small, said independent pollster Ibrahim Suffian of the Merdeka Center, but extrapolated at a national level, it could signal a larger trend for BN, and specifically Umno. This is because Rompin is considered a bellwether by-election for Umno as a typical party stronghold. It has a large rural population, many of whom are Federal Land Development Authority (Felda) settlers, a scheme to help the rural poor plant cash crops like oil palm.
But the by-election has shown that Felda settlers themselves are no longer automatically voting for Umno, as the vote breakdown in polling districts in Felda schemes show that a significant number of younger settlers voted for PAS.
Reduced percentage
The parliamentary seat was held by the late Tan Sri Jamaluddin Jarjis who, in 2013, won 30,040 out of a total of 45,849 votes that had been cast. This earned the late former ambassador to the US 66% of all votes cast.
Last night, Hassan beat PAS candidate Nazri Ahmad by garnering 23,796 out of a total of 39,288 votes, or 61% of total votes cast.
The difference was important, said Ibrahim, as the percentage of popular vote reflected more accurately the level or trend of support for a party.
Popular vote percentage is more significant than the winning majority because the latter is dependent on voter turnout, which is typically lower in by-elections.
“The fact that it is viewed as a safe seat and that it is on a weekday would lead to a lower turnout,” Ibrahim told The Malaysian Insider.
Yesterday’s turnout was 70%, compared with 85.89% in GE13.
“So if you discount the young, outstation, urban-dwelling voters who did not come back, you are left with the locals, who are the typical hard core Umno supporter,” said Ibrahim.
This means the 5% fall in support was among those who would usually vote for BN, said Ibrahim.
Pahang Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Adnan Yaakob admitted to this decline, telling reporters last night that he expected a winning majority of about 8,000 votes.
“The voters are sending a message to the government. The GST (goods and services tax) and Felda are issues which affect the people. We have to deal with this.
“I hope the federal government can explain how we can deal with these issues,” Adnan said.
Ibrahim echoed this analysis, saying the unpopular consumption tax and slump in palm oil prices would have affected voter sentiment.
The feud between former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamed and the incumbent Datuk Seri Najib Razak could also have put off Umno supporters.
Adnan, however, was quick to add that it was not the GST itself that was the problem but how the government explained the tax to the public.
“We did not effectively communicate to the people about the GST. The opposition confused the people (about the tax),” Adnan said.
Protest votes
Support for PAS came not just from the urban polling districts such as Muadzam and Bandar Baru, which the Islamist party won, but also from younger voters in Felda schemes.
About 70% of Rompin’s voters are from Felda schemes.
A glance at all the major Felda polling districts such as Felda Selendang, Keratong and Selancar showed that two-thirds of elderly voters chose BN over PAS.
But PAS managed to capture between 40% and almost 50% of all the young voters in these districts.
In fact, in at least two polling districts, Keratong 2 and Keratong 4, PAS won over more young voters than BN. In Keratong 2, PAS seemed to even get close to half of all elderly voters when it garnered 151 to BN’s 162 votes.
Despite this pattern, Ibrahim cautioned against equating this swing among traditional BN supporters in Rompin with a thumbs up for PAS or even Pakatan Rakyat.
It could simply be that in some Felda schemes, disputes between settlers and management translated into voter anger.
Also, even with an increase in Felda support, PAS still received about the same amount of votes it did in 2013. This time it garnered 14,901 votes, 52 votes fewer than GE13.
“In Umno seats, the alternative is usually PAS, so voters who usually vote for Umno may be showing their disapproval by voting for PAS. Or they might not vote at all.
“I think it is more of a protest vote against Umno rather than a genuine show of confidence in PAS or PR,” said Ibrahim. – May 6, 2015.
http://www.themalaysianinsider.c ... but-neither-did-pas
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2013
30040 - UMNO
14926 - PAS
2015
23796 - UMNO
14901 - PAS
Perbandingan itu jelas menunjukkan jumlah UNDI ke PAS hampir sama sebaliknyer kpd UMNO jauh menurun, mungkin mereka yg diperantauan atau malas nok ngundi....ATAS PAGAR yg malas amik PORT....
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Nampaknya ramai yg undi umno dulu tak pi mengundi di prk kali ni....i pun kalau di kubang pasu ada prk, malas nak ngundi kalau bossnya still najib
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senang jer jwpannyer.....
org2 rompin tak nampak apa itu GST....1MDB...bla bla sana.....bla bla sini....
bagi org rompin selagi ada BN....selagi tu la ada BR1M......
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Rasanya dah jenuh tunggu one day tuu....
nak perubahan drastik...
nak saksikan kejatuhan besar2an BN...satu demi satu secepat mungkin
dah bosan sangat...
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Edited by blastoff at 6-5-2015 01:08 PM
Felda tu di wujudkan oleh UMNO , so pertolongan UMNO kat situ bukan stakat BRIM je tapi banyak lagi lah sejak tanah felda tu mula di teroka hingga sekarang .
Memang yang tua payah la nak protest sebab depa terima banyak pertolongan UMNO selama ni.
Yang muda plak yang kebanyakannya di perantauan terutama di bandar2 merasa perit GST akan tunjuk protest la kan sebab depa yang terkesan paling hebat .
Taaapi selama mana UMNO nak bergantung pada yang tua, kerana yang tua jangka usianya tak se lama yang muda , mostly nya lah.
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Edited by blastoff at 6-5-2015 01:08 PM
yang muda selama ni cukup ramai dok sokong kuat pembangkang, sekarang ni yang muda kat felda plak yang ikut sokong pembangkang . Bukan makin menyusut tapi bertambah2.
Itu yang patutnya BN risau sebab depa tak mampu menarik pengundi muda, lagi lama lagi teruk tak di sokong golongan muda.
Kalau nak jadi parti tokwan selamanya boleh la, tapi jumlah pengikut makin lama makin kurang la sampai peringkat tak trending lagi dah la one day nanti. 
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Edited by blastoff at 6-5-2015 01:13 PM
Rompin, we hear you and will do good by you FMT Reporters
| May 6, 2015
Pahang MB Adnan Yaakob pledges to work for the people after lower-majority win in Rompin sends clear signal that the people are losing faith in BN. 
ROMPIN: The people spoke out loud and clear against the government at the by-election here yesterday and Barisan Nasional (BN) has pledged to heed the message.
BN’s Hasan Arifin won the parliamentary by-election with a lower majority, polling 23,796 votes, while Jamaluddin Jarjis, who was killed in a helicopter crash last month, had won in 2013 with 30,040 votes.
The opposition candidate Nazri Ahmad of PAS took 14,901 votes yesterday.
“I understand that the ‘mature voters’ are signalling for the government to start listening to them,” said Pahang Menteri Besar Adnan Yaakob last night after Hasan was declared as the new Member of Parliament for Rompin.
“I will get to work as soon as possible. I will do my best to give them what they have been asking for.”
Adenan said that for a start he would call on all Orang Asli and village leaders in Pahang, sit with them and listen to their problems.
He conceded that issues like Felda and the Goods and Services Tax (GST) did not go down well with the people because they weren’t explained clearly.
Adnan also pledged to look into Rompin’s tourism industry which could be developed further for the benefit of the local people.
Hasan on the other hand, took a more optimistic approach and attributed his victory to the fact that the people still had faith in BN and Prime Minister Najib Razak’s leadership.
He said the lower-margin win was due to the unhappiness over the GST which came into effect just before the by-election on April 1.
Najib, who is BN chairman, congratulated Hasan on his win on Twitter: “Congratulations to Datuk Hasan Arifin on his victory in the Rompin by-election. Hidup Barisan Nasional!”
- See more at: http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com ... thash.9bNExgV8.dpuf
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MB pahang dah risau tu  , tapi macai2 masih relax confident sakan
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Pengundi muda yg diluar..kalo balik ngundi..boleh sebabkan kekalahan bn |
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Tok batin jugak wang besarrrr |
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Aku sendiri antara pengundi yg megundi semalam...aku anak jati rompin...sebenarnya kecewa sebab bn menang semlm...arwah JJ pun x byk menyumbang kepada pembangunan romp in.peluang pekerjaan yg kurang disini..boleh bandingkan rompin nie dgn daerah2 phg dari segi pembangunan memang ketara jauh berbeza:zz |
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“I will get to work as soon as possible. I will do my best to give them what they have been asking for.”
Senang saja... najib dan menteri dia letak jawatan... .
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itu laa, come PRU 14 nanti semua pengundi muda keluar mengundi kang apa jadi ? Orang muda kalau protest hebaaat, sanggup ke jalanraya kalau digamit ambiga inikan plak kalau takat nak pangkah undi je tak perlu terjerit2 terloncat untuk tunjuk protest , lagi laa depa akan pulun buat beramai2
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masdiana-ana replied at 6-5-2015 01:21 PM
Aku sendiri antara pengundi yg megundi semalam...aku anak jati rompin...sebenarnya kecewa sebab bn m ...
Mmg sendu rompin tu
cmnalah bn boleh menang lg
tgk johor tuhaaa
bn pegang juga tapi infra power
pahang? Rompin? Sedeh. |
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Golongan warga tua di rompin tahu pasal gst ...tahu pasal harga brg yg naik.tapi golongan ini still setia sokong bn kerana dah diterap dlm pemikiran mereka bn memperjuangkan nasib org melayu..diorg x tahu hala tuju bn dah berubah..bn sekarang x sama mcm dulu. |
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Camne najib nak tarik pengundi muda untuk undi UMNO ? Tarak strategi pun yang dia rangkakan yang berjaya stakat ni.
Meletakkan calon muda tak cukup, kerana yang di geramkan oleh pengundi muda adalah policy BN yang menekan ekonomi dan kehidupan depa tu dan jugak corruption yang berlaku , so letak pi lah muda tara mana pun calon kalau policy masih macam tu jugak dan corruption masih terus di amalkan jugak nescaya depa tak sokong laa haih.
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menang pun tipis je..ramai lagi sayang kan parti walaupun GST.. |
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Post time 6-5-2015 12:47 PM
