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Public Mutual: Malaysian equity market fairly valued
Published: 2010/01/22
Investment themes in Malaysia include beneficiaries of the pick-up in construction activities, resources stocks and selected export driven stocks, says Public Mutual
MALAYSIA'S stock market valuations look stretched but builders and exporters may shine, helped by a recovering economy at home and abroad, said Malaysian fund manager Public Mutual.
The country's biggest private fund management firm, with RM34.3 billion in assets under management, is bullish about equities in China, Australia and Singapore, said chief executive officer Yeoh Kim Hong.
"In terms of valuations, the local market is fairly valued," said Yeoh.
Malaysia was one of the worst-performing stock markets in Asia last year, ranked fourth from the bottom.
The country's benchmark share index is trading near its 10-year average price-to-earnings ratio of 16.7 times, Yeoh said in an e-mail interview.
Public Equity Fund, which invested mainly in Malaysian stocks, outperformed the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI index over the past 12 months, with a total return of 59.4 per cent, compared with the index's 48.4 per cent return during the same period, data on Public Mutual's website showed.
For 2010, investment themes are expected to be centred around the country's economic performance, said Yeoh.
"Investment themes in Malaysia include beneficiaries of the pick-up in construction activities, resources stocks as a hedge against inflation and selected export driven stocks on the back of a recovery in global demand," said Yeoh.
Trade-dependent Malaysia may see its gross domestic product (GDP) expand by 5 per cent in 2010 after shrinking by an estimated 3 per cent in 2009, a Reuters poll on 15 economists showed this month.
Public Mutual holds 30 million shares in palm oil exporter IOI Corp on the Malaysian stock exchange, Thomson Reuters data showed.
It also owns 8.6 million shares in IJM Corp, the country's largest construction company by assets.
Elsewhere in Asia, Yeoh said her firm likes China, Australia and Singapore.
"Despite the Chinese government's recent tightening measures to slow credit growth, we are optimistic about the long term prospects for Chinese stocks," said Yeoh.
"We are also positive about the outlook for Australia and Singapore which are positioned to benefit from the anticipated global economic recovery," she said.
In terms of sectors, Public Mutual prefers consumer, infrastructure and natural resources stocks in the region, she said.
Yeoh said her firm will be selective in investing in Asia's telecommunications sector, which had underperformed in emerging as well as developed markets in the past year.
"Broadly, the growth prospects for telecommunications companies are constrained as penetration rates are generally high in most major markets," she said.
"Telecommunications stocks tend to be perceived as yield plays and laggards during an economic recovery," she added.
Public Mutual has about 60 million shares in Malaysia's Axiata, which owns telecommunications assets in many fast-growing markets such as Sri Lanka, Indonesia and India.
The fund manager also owns 5.96 million shares in DiGi.com, the smallest mobile provider in Malaysia. - Reuters |
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Pasaran uji semula paras 1,300 mata
KUALA LUMPUR 24 Jan. - Harga saham di Bursa Malaysia berkemungkinan menguji semula paras 1,300 mata minggu depan tetapi peningkatan kukuh mungkin terbatas oleh faktor-faktor luaran yang negatif dengan ketiadaan petunjuk baru dalam pasaran tempatan, kata seorang penganalisis.
"Lantunan teknikal dijangkakan tetapi mungkin tidak besar kerana bursa tempatan biasanya cenderung menjejaki pasaran serantau yang sedia lemah.
"Justeru itu, ia akan cuba bertahan di atas paras 1,300 dalam jajaran sempit 1,305 hingga 1,293 minggu depan, kata penganalisis dari firma broker saham tempatan itu.
Pasaran tempatan juga dijangka hambar bagi Januari dengan sedikit kemeriahan sebelum Tahun Baru Cina.
Bagaimanapun, menurut seorang peniaga, pembetulan pasaran dan momentum menurun memberikan peluang baik bagi pelabur membeli saham-saham yang mampu bertahan pada nilai yang lebih baik.
Dalam nota penyelidikannya pada Jumaat, TA Securities berkata, paras sokongan terdekat dalam aliran menurun bagi indeks tempatan ialah pada 1,300 mata tetapi sokongan lebih kukuh boleh dilihat pada paras 1,289 dan 1,281 mata, berikutan penurunan dalam pasaran-pasaran serantau.
Bagi minggu baru berakhir, pasaran meningkat melepasi 1,300 mata tetapi sukar bertahan pada paras itu kerana faktor-faktor luaran yang tidak memberangsangkan, melemahkan sentimen.
Dagangan terbatas dalam jajaran sempit pada Khamis disebabkan kebimbangan tentang langkah China mengetatkan dasar monetarinya pertumbuhan Keluaran Dalam Negara Kasarnya sebanyak 10.7 peratus bagi suku keempat 2009, dan 8.7 peratus bagi setahun penuh.
Prestasi Wall Street pada hari Khamis merupakan yang terburuk dalam tempoh tiga bulan dan menjejaskan bukan sahaja bursa tempatan, malah pasaran-pasaran serantau pada hari berikutnya.
Bagaimanapun, belian lewat di kaunter-kaunter terpilih pada Jumaat berupaya mendorong FBM KLCI mengakhiri dagangan minggu ini pada 1,300.45, naik 1.87 mata daripada 1,298.58 sebelumnya.
Indeks Kewangan melonjak 85.44 mata kepada 11,415.49, Indeks Perladangan turun 75.32 mata kepada 6,439.72 dan Indeks Perusahaan 15.83 mata lebih rendah pada 2,700.9.
Indeks FBM Emas turun 21.56 mata kepada 8,750.0, Indeks FBM Top 100 susut 1.9 mata kepada 8,510.86 dan Indeks FBM ACE jatuh 93.73 mata kepada 4,495.21.
Jumlah dagangan mengecil kepada 5.927 bilion saham bernilai RM7.437 bilion, daripada 8.014 bilion saham bernilai RM9.018 bilion sebelumnya.
Dalam Pasaran Utama jumlah dagangan susut kepada 4.838 bilion unit bernilai RM7.188 bilion daripada 6.964 bilion unit bernilai RM8.733 bilion minggu lepas.
Waran opsyen belian susut menyaksikan penyusutan jumlah dagangan kepada 284.809 juta unit bernilai RM55.089 juta daripada 151.238 juta unit bernilai RM27.737 juta.
Pasaran ACE mencatatkan pengurangan jumlah dagangan kepada 748.839 juta unit bernilai RM165.66 juta daripada 781.886 juta unit bernilai RM213.769 juta minggu lepas. |
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correction terburuk 2010..
...............................
Ulasan Pasaran: FBM KLCI turun 13.66 mata
HARGA saham di Bursa Malaysia terus mengalami kerugian semalam sejajar aktiviti jualan serantau, kata peniaga.
Aliran menurun itu, katanya, berikutan arahan China kepada bank untuk melaksanakan keperluan menaikkan rizab, yang mana pelabur melahirkan kebimbangan dengan langkah mengetatkan dasar monetari negara itu.
Cadangan kerajaan Amerika Syarikat (AS) untuk mengehadkan pengambilan risiko di negara itu turut memberi kesan kepada pasaran serantau, katanya.
Pada jam 5 petang, Indeks Komposit Kuala Lumpur FTSE Bursa Malaysia (FBM KLCI) turun 13.66 mata kepada 1,283.02 selepas dibuka meningkat 0.02 mata kepada 1,296.81.
Pasaran masih mempunyai ruang untuk turun ke paras sokongan 1,270.
“Saya tidak merasakan pasaran akan mengalami keruntuhan. Aktiviti jualan serantau hari ini adalah berikutan reaksi emosi,” katanya.
Beliau menjangka halangan bagi pasaran tempatan diperoleh pada paras 1,290 mata.
Indeks Kewangan Bursa Malaysia rugi 134.15 mata kepada 11,239.01, Indeks Perusahaan turun 37.95 mata kepada 2,649.34 dan Indeks Perladangan turun 77.83 mata kepada 6,345.79.
Indeks FBM Emas turun 117.5 mata kepada 8,610.54, Indeks FBM Ace rugi 93.21 mata kepada 4,396.26 dan Indeks FBM70 turun 164.86 mata kepada 8,363.4.
Kaunter rugi mengatasi untung sebanyak 707 kepada 152 manakala 184 kaunter kekal tidak berubah dan 277 yang lain tidak diniagakan.
Jumlah dagangan meningkat kepada 1.25 bilion saham bernilai RM1.65 bilion daripada 996.194 juta saham bernilai RM1.131 bilion yang dicatat kelmarin.
Penganalisis itu juga berkata kerugian semalam adalah berikutan aktiviti pengambilan untung berlebihan dalam kaunter berwajaran tinggi, terutama saham berwajaran tinggi utama.
Antara saham aktif, Talam turun 1.0 sen kepada 12 sen, IRCB turun 13 sen kepada RM1.38 dan KNM rugi 3.0 sen kepada 73.5 sen.
Kaunter melawan arus aliran itu termasuk Tomypak yang menokok 35 sen kepada RM2.63, AEON meningkat 30 sen kepada RM5.50 dan Perduren yang meningkat 28 sen kepada RM1.82.
Bagi saham berwajaran tinggi, Sime Darby turun 6.0 sen kepada RM8.79, Maybank merosot 5.0 sen kepada RM6.85, CIMB turun 22 sen kepada RM13.06 dan Maxis tidak berubah pada harga RM5.39.
IOI Corp turun 9.0 sen kepada RM5.41, Tenaga Nasional turun 5.0 sen kepada RM8.13, Genting merosot 8.0 sen kepada RM7.12 dan MISC turun 25 sen kepada RM8.15. Perolehan di Pasaran Utama meningkat kepada 1.08 bilion saham bernilai RM1.61 bilion daripada 836.239 juta saham bernilai RM1.097 bilion.
Jumlah dagangan di Pasaran Ace turun kepada 81.989 juta saham bernilai RM16.167 juta daripada 120.4 juta saham bernilai RM22.35 juta. Waran meningkat kepada 61.14 juta unit bernilai RM11.674 juta daripada 25.47 juta unit bernilai RM5.57 juta.
Produk pengguna mencatatkan 68.98 juta saham diniagakan di Papan Utama, produk perusahaan 294.6 juta, pembinaan 54.83 juta, dagang dan perkhidmatan 304.9 juta, teknologi 50.49 juta, prasarana 13.69 juta, kewangan 82.2 juta, hotel 2.78 juta, hartanah 186.72 juta, perladangan 17.89 juta, perlombongan 26,000, REIT 3.49 juta dan tertutup/dana 67,900.
- Bernama |
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jam 10:23am
jatuh 16 mata lagi...? |
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aku berminat utk buat pelaburan pakai kwsp.... x byk lah dlm 6k aje... bole ke?... |
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AmResearch: Cyclical bull rally has not prematurely ended
Tags: AmResearch | corporate earnings | cyclical bull rally
Written by AmResearch
Thursday, 28 January 2010 14:30
KUALA LUMPUR: AmResearch Sdn Bhd believes there is more upside for the local stock market and from a fundamental standpoint; it does not think the cyclical bull rally in the market has prematurely ended.
It said on Thursday, Jan 28 that for Malaysia, it expects gross domestic product to rebound by 5.7% in the first quarter 2010 (1Q10) and rise by a further 4.7% in 2Q10 before moderating to below 3% in the last two quarters of this year - as the low base effect tapers off.
“Historically, market performance has been strongest when GDP accelerates, underpinning a macro backdrop for corporate earnings - to expand at an even faster pace than our current estimate of 25% for 2010 (2009: -2%),” it said.
AmResearch retains its fair value of 1,450 for the FBM KLCI, based on 2010’s PE of 16.5 times or one standard deviation above its mean of 14.5 times.
Market should trade above its long-term average because corporate earnings growth of 25% set to rise this year is already more than three times the historical average growth rate of just 7% per annum.
“This market correction, therefore, presents an opportunity to accumulate quality stocks,” it said, adding several “high-beta” stocks on its Buy list that have been sold down in recent days are CIMB, IJM Land, Tenaga Nasional, Ann Joo Resources, AirAsia, Unisem, MPI and Genting Group.
To recap, it said that in recent days, the market rally has been somewhat destabilised by policy tightening surprises in China where it again moved in to curb banks from lending.
The FBM KLCI retraced 43 points (down 3%) on Wednesday from its recent peak of 1,308 on Jan 21 with risk aversion resurfacing.
It said the issue was whether this correction signaled the beginning of a valuation de-rating or a transitory mid-cycle pullback due to profit taking after a strong start since early this year.
AmResearch said it appears unlikely that China’s policy tightening will undermine its economic growth (4Q GDP: 10.7%) and by extension, de-rail the global economic recovery already gathering pace. Its baseline view is that the macro momentum remains robust.
“We continue to believe that the cyclical economic upswing will be most significant in 1H 2010, given a depressed base last year,” it said.
For Malaysia, its analysis of previous earnings-driven rally from trough to peak - in 1998/1999 and 2001/2002 - also indicates that an uptrend has never been shorter than 12 months.
The rallies in 1998/1999 and 2001/2002 sustained for 16 months and 12 months; respectively. Corporate earnings rebounded by a strong 36% in 1999 after contracting 20% in 1998. In 2002, corporate earnings accelerated by 24%, from just 3% in 2001.
“We are only just 10 months from lows seen in March 2009, and corporate earnings are still expanding with upside bias. To be sure, the previous earnings-driven rally from trough to peak - in 1998/1999a and 2001/2002 - was also punctuated by three mid-cycle corrections. Pullback was transitory, stretching no longer than two months. Dips were 15% to 22% off intermittent highs,” it said.
AmResearch said a 15% pullback from the market’s recent high of 1,308 means that it might form a base at 1,112 (or a 2010’s price-to-earnings of 12.8 times), implying a potential downside risk of 12% from the current 1,265.
However, the flipside is that the market will correct to 1,112, if it materialises. This would imply that an earnings-driven rebound to our fair value of 1,450 would also produce an attractive potential return of 30%, outweighing a downside risk of 12%.
“Thus, even though trading conditions might remain volatile at least until concern of policy risk dissipates, the upside potential is greater than downside risk,” it said.
It remained committed to its view that profit drivers - particularly for cyclicals - auto, banks, CONSTRUCTION [], property, transport and TECHNOLOGY [] and media are solidifying as end-demand and margin recovery kick-in to accentuate an earnings rebound. |
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345# aku1265
sorry, saya tak sempat nak reply yr PM...busy teramaat sekarang.,..
btw, nanti mereka2 (UTC) akan PM u regarding yr attention nak invest tu.. |
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345# aku1265
sorry, saya tak sempat nak reply yr PM...busy teramaat sekarang.,..
btw, nanti mereka2 (UTC) akan PM u regarding yr attention nak invest tu..
kirawang Post at 28-1-2010 21:03 
wokie... |
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wokie...
aku1265 Post at 29-1-2010 10:03 
sekarang berapa umur..? |
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sekarang berapa umur..?
kirawang Post at 29-1-2010 23:31 
dah 35... baru terfikir... |
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dah 35... baru terfikir...
aku1265 Post at 30-1-2010 09:31
tak pe, u still ada 20y before retire..
kalau nak tahu contoh pengiraan jumlah yg boleh diinvest..
total account 1 - 29k x 20% |
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watchaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
bos..................minho foreberrrrrrrrrrrrr!!!! hehe  |
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errr...kalau nak buat part time lps tu buat investment sendiri boleh ke?... |
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watchaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
bos..................minho foreberrrrrrrrrrrrr!!!! hehe
Jelita Post at 31-1-2010 16:58
sudah sudah tu jel..
kau dok puja si pelakon korea tu...
better kau puja Mr chooi, bangsar branch mgr yang ada iras iras org korea...
lagi berfaedah.. |
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errr...kalau nak buat part time lps tu buat investment sendiri boleh ke?...
aku1265 Post at 31-1-2010 20:12
boleh....ambik licence dulu...
tapi kalau setakat nak buat investment sendiri, tak berbaloi dengan masa kena allocate untuk training, dll.. |
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boleh....ambik licence dulu...
tapi kalau setakat nak buat investment sendiri, tak berbaloi dengan masa kena allocate untuk training, dll..
kirawang Post at 31-1-2010 22:57 
kena ambik lesen dulu... training tu siapa yg bagi?... anyway saya berminatlah nak buat unit trust ni... so mcmana step seterusnya?.. |
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thanks bro.... tanya sikit... yg group training tu the whole day ke?.. |
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thanks bro.... tanya sikit... yg group training tu the whole day ke?..
aku1265 Post at 2-2-2010 10:40 
dr 7-30 after magrib sampai 9-30pm....kejap je... |
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Category: Belia & Informasi
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Author
Post time 28-1-2010 09:59 AM
