With the Hot 100 to be released on Wednesday marking the first encompassing each song's first full week of airplay, sales and streaming (the three metrics that feed the Hot 100's data pool), what ranks could be expected for "Roar" and "Applause"?
"Roar" is currently at No. 14 on the building Radio Songs chart with 47 million all-format audience impressions."Applause" is set to start perhaps just outside the airplay chart's top 40, currently boasting 23 million in audience.
Partial-week streaming figures show "Roar" at 3.2 million U.S. streams and "Applause" at 2.5 million, according to BDS. Both figures represent audio streams and YouTube plays for lyric videos and user-generated content. Gaga's official video for "Applause" premiered earlier today and will affect next week's chart. (Streaming data for this week's chart covers the week ending Aug. 18.)
Based on the rough numbers above, Perry could challenge for the Hot 100's summit (vaulting from its airplay-only-fueled No. 85 debut last week), while Lady Gaga is likely to debut in the top 10.
Can Perry soar to No. 1? Key are sales of Robin Thicke's "Blurred Lines" (featuring T.I. and Pharrell), which has led the Hot 100 for 10 weeks. The song will easily maintain its command on Radio Songs, which last week was fueled by a record-extending 227 million impressions. With such an expected large lead in airplay again for "Lines," the battle for No. 1 on the Hot 100 will seemingly come down to the download sales of "Lines." (In a potential roadblock, Perry simply has the misfortune of running up against the track with the biggest weekly radio audience dating to the Radio Songs chart's launch in 1990.)
Last week, "Lines" sold a hefty 346,000, according to Nielsen SoundScan, although the sum marked a 14% decline. This week’s sales projections for "Lines," according to industry sources, are for between 260,000 and 280,000. Overall streams for "Lines" should be near 7 million, down slightly from its sum last week (7.6 million).
So where does our prediction stand? Too close to call, with two days of radio airplay remaining, sales to be finalized and streaming data for the entire week yet to be compiled. (Sorry! But it simply appears that close a race …)
gjoy_chester posted on 20-8-2013 11:33 AM
Roar 1st week sales estimate around 550K tapi katanya maybe tak merasa #1 coz Blurred Lines still st ...
Udah2 lah lagu Blurred Lines tu. Muak dah aku dengar. Lagu tu aku boring dengar sbb aku dah lama dengar lagu tu sejak video dia release lagi. So bila dah start popular tu bagi aku dah basi dah.
Wlpn Roar punya digital sale 557,000 (1), Blurred Lines yg overrated tu masih tinggi 291,000(2). Lagi satu Blurred Lines leading Airplay dgn streaming. Roar jual x lbh half blurred lines.
Lady gagah ucap selamat tinggal je la. Digital sales pon no.3, 218,000. Silap2 debut Top10 je
Katy Perry Dethrones Robin Thicke Atop Hot 100
Perry's 'Roar' rises 2-1, snapping the 12-week reign of Thicke's 'Blurred Lines,' featuring T.I. and Pharrell. Plus, Eminem's 'Berzerk' debuts at No. 3 and Lorde's 'Royals' leaps into the top 10
With the eye of the tiger, Katy Perry is the Billboard Hot 100's new champion, as "Roar" rises 2-1. The song – which becomes Perry's eighth Hot 100 No. 1 – stops the 12-week command of Robin Thicke's "Blurred Lines" (featuring T.I. and Pharrell). Meanwhile, Eminem blasts onto the chart at No. 3 with "Berzerk" and Lorde enters the top 10 with her debut alternative/pop hit "Royals."
As always, let's look deeper at the numbers.
Registering a 17% gain in overall Hot 100 chart points, "Roar" leads Digital Songs for a third week, selling 448,000 downloads for the week ending Sept. 1 (up 14%), according to Nielsen SoundScan, after Perry performed it the previous Sunday (Aug. 25) at the end of the MTV Video Music Awards. "Roar" also leads the subscription services-based On-Demand Songs chart, where it charges 4-1 with 2.1 million U.S. streams, up 33%, according to Nielsen BDS. It climbs 5-3 on the overall Streaming Songs survey (5.4 million, up 16%).
"Roar" claims the Hot 100's top Airplay Gainer award, bounding 11-6 on Radio Songs with a 27% spike to 97 million all-format audience impressions, according to BDS. It's Perry's 12th top 10 on the airplay tally.
"Roar" becomes Perry's eighth Hot 100 No. 1. She first led with "I Kissed a Girl," which began a seven-week command (her longest) the week of July 5, 2008. In that span, Perry has quickly scaled the list of the women with the most No. 1s in the chart's 55-year history. Among female soloists, only Mariah Carey (18), Madonna, Rihanna (12 each), Whitney Houston (11) and Janet Jackson (10) have totaled more leaders. Among all artists, Perry is one of just 16 acts with at least eight No. 1s; the Beatles lead with 20 Hot 100 toppers.
"Roar" ushers in Perry's third Capitol Records album, "Prism," due Oct. 22. The lead singles from her prior two studio sets likewise topped the Hot 100: "Kissed," the first track from "One of the Boys," and "California Gurls" (featuring Snoop Dogg), the first of five No. 1s from 2010's "Teenage Dream." (The latter release became the first by a woman, and only the second among all acts after Michael Jackson's "Bad" (1987-88), to generate five Hot 100 leaders.)
The advance of "Roar" halts the 12-week rule of Thicke's "Lines" (down 2% in Hot 100 points; the former leads the latter by a 4% margin). Still, "Lines" leads Radio Songs for a ninth week (205 million, down 8%). It holds at No. 2 on Streaming Songs (6.7 million, up 10%), also benefitting from his much buzzed-about VMAs performance of the song with Miley Cyrus. Despite a 4% gain to 1.8 million, "Lines" drops 1-3 on On-Demand Songs after eight weeks at No. 1. On Digital Songs, it slips 2-3 (244,000, down 3%).
"Lines" logs a 13th week at No. 1 on Hot R&B/Hip-Hop Songs and a 16th week atop R&B Songs. It also appears to be a certainty to be named the top title on Billboard's Songs of the Summer chart. The season's final rankings will be revealed on Billboard.com tomorrow (Sept. 5).
Eminem bows at No. 3 on the Hot 100 with "Berzerk," which blasts in at No. 2 on Digital Songs with 362,000 downloads sold. It starts at No. 13 on Streaming Songs (2.7 million) and No. 59 on Radio Songs (21 million). "Berzerk" previews Eminem's album "The Marshall Mathers LP 2" (which was teased in a commercial during the VMAs), due Nov. 5.
Upon its arrival, "Berzerk" becomes Eminem's 15th Hot 100 top 10. Among rappers, only Jay Z (20), Lil Wayne and Ludacris (18 each) boast more; Diddy and T-Pain have also racked 15 top 10s apiece. It's Eminem's sixth top 10 entrance, tying Lil Wayne for the most among males. The pair trails only Taylor Swift, who's logged a record 11 top 10 debuts.
"Berzerk" concurrently starts at No. 1 on Rap Songs.
Following her now-fabled VMAs appearance, Cyrus scores a 16% Hot 100 points gain for "We Can't Stop" (which peaked at No. 2 for three weeks) but backtracks 3-4 with the arrival of Eminem's new song. "Stop" claims a record-padding 11th week atop Streaming Songs (8.1 million, up 27%, good for the Hot 100's Streaming Gainer badge) and gains on Digital Songs (157,000, up 10%) and Radio Songs (57 million, up 4%) despite dipping 7-9 and 15-16 on the lists, respectively.
Cyrus' next radio single, "Wrecking Ball," meanwhile, is the Hot 100's top Digital Gainer, vaulting 50-14. The song sold 201,000 downloads in its first full week on sale (up 124%) after debuting last week with 90,000 after less than two full days of retail availability.
Lady Gaga rounds out the Hot 100's top five with "Applause" (4-5), with which she opened the VMAs. The lead single from "ARTPOP," due Nov. 11, jumps 5-4 on Digital Songs 213,000 (up 31%) and 35-31 on Radio Songs (39 million, up 7%). It descends 3-5 on Streaming Songs (4.2 million, down 29%) after benefitting in the prior chart week from the Aug. 19 premiere of its official video.
"Applause" tops the Dance/Electronic Songs chart for a third week.
Jay Z's "Holy Grail" (featuring Justin Timberlake) and Avicii's "Wake Me Up!" hold (with bullets) at Nos. 6 and 7, respectively, on the Hot 100.
Along with Eminem, 16-year-old New Zealander Lorde enters the Hot 100's top 10, as her breakthrough U.S. single "Royals" springs 12-8. The track, atop the Alternative Songs airplay chart for a fourth week, bullets at No. 8 (down from No. 6) on Digital Songs but with a 16% gain to 167,000; lifts 13-12 on Streaming Songs (2.8 million, up 14%); and rumbles 30-17 on Radio Songs (57 million, up 40%).
Closing out the Hot 100's top 10, Imagine Dragons' "Radioactive" slides 5-9 (while ruling Hot Rock Songs for a record-extending 24th week ) and Lana Del Rey dips 9-10 despite increasing on Streaming Songs (23-9; 3 million, up 56%) and Radio Songs (14-13; 74 million, up 8%).
Visit Billboard.com tomorrow (Sept. 5), when all rankings, including the Hot 100 in its entirety and Digital Songs, Radio Songs, Streaming Songs and On-Demand Songs will be refreshed, as they are each Thursday. The latest charts also appear in the next issue of Billboard magazine (on sale on Friday, Sept. 6).
Post time 20-8-2013 03:15 AM
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Post time 6-9-2013 10:02 PM
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