Russian Su 27 and Chinese 11B

Debmey

The End of History

                    By Reuben F. Johnson
                    The Weekly Standard | Thursday, May 15, 2008                     
                    Beijing - RUSSIA AND THEPEOPLE'S REPUBLIC of China are about to go head-to-head on issue of significantnational security and strategic importance to both nations. Believe it or not,it is not about the placement of a gas pipeline, nuclear weapons development,or the rapidly rising price per barrel of Russian oil. What it concerns is theage-old Chinese penchant for making illegal copies of almost anythingimaginable.
"You wouldn't steal a car!" is the warning that flashes across thescreen almost every time you put a movie in your DVD player. What usuallyfollows is a series of messages about the evils of pirating movies, includingthe obligatory warning from the US Federal Bureau of Investigation about howvideo piracy is punishable by up to 5 years in a federal penitentiary and/or$250,000 in fines.
One country where these warnings have had little or no effect is thePeople's Republic of China,no matter where you are in this vast country. As you move through variousregions of the country one, the people look different, the food tastesdifferent, the Putonghua (Mandarin) Chinese that is spoken in Beijingand other parts of northern and southwestern China is replaced by Guangdonghua(Standard Cantonese) or other local dialects.
What does not change in any city is that almost every DVD and CD shop has asecret room behind a hidden panel or bookcase that contains a mammoth selectionof pirated films and music--all of which are supposedly illegal. The last suchhideaway room I visited this past month was offering 10 DVDs for 100 ChineseYuan (RMB), with an 11th disk thrown in for free, which works out to about$1.30 per disk. This may be one of the few places in the world where the USdollar still buys something. (I do not want to say which city, lest the localgendarmeries decide they need to make a symbolic crackdown on theseentrepreneurs to create some positive pre-Olympic games publicity and takeeveryone's attention off the debacle of the torch relay and the recent exposureof a secret Chinese Navy submarine base.)
But, Hollywood and the trade associationsthat represent the famous entertainers trying to stamp out video and musicpirating have comparatively little to complain about when you look at thesituation that Russia'smilitary aircraft industry finds itself in. As the Russian newspaper Pravdareports, "Chinese pirates have entered a new level of activity."
In the early 1980s and before the collapse of the USSR, Soviet aircraft industryturned out two extremely capable, twin-engined, twin-tailed fighter designs:The Mikoyan MiG-29 and the Sukhoi Su-27. The latter aircraft was considerablylarger than the smaller and more nimble MiG. It was in the same weight class asthe Boeing F-15, and like its USanalogue it was designed to be a long-range interceptor that could give itsoperators the long reach needed by nations with a plethora of air space todefend.
n the early 1990s, the PRC was desperate for just such anairplane. Chinese industry had tried to produce one for years, but had seen itsefforts at design innovation stalled for more than a decade. At the same timeorders and funding to Russian industry from its own military had dropped tonothing. The only way the makers of Russian weapon systems were going tosurvive was from export sales to China,India,and other nations.
Several years after their first purchase of Su-27SK export variants, Chinasigned an agreement with Russia's state arms export agency, Rosvooruzheniye,for the licensed production at the Shenyang Aircraft Works of 200 additionalSu-27SKs, as well as subsequent orders of Su-30MKK two-seat, multirole versionsof the aircraft. Russian industry breathed a sigh of relief as billions ofChinese dollars began to fill their coffers.
But, in 2004 China'smilitary told Moscowthat the airplanes it was licence-producing were no longer needed because--accordingto the Chinese military--"the combat performance of these aircraft is fartoo limited." The 200-aircraft production run was truncated at 95 units ofthe J-11, which was the designation given by Shenyang for the Su-27SKsassembled in China, with only 180 of the twin-engined aircraft's Saturn/LyulkaAL-31F jet engines delivered as well.
Three years later in 2007, it was easy to see why the Shenyang plant had cut off the licensedproduction of the Su-27SK at the halfway mark. Chinese industry had learned allit needed to know in order to copy this airplane and soon presented their"indigenously developed" J-11B fighter, which from all externalappearances appeared to be an analogue of the Su-27SK. Russian officials wereless than diplomatic in their reaction. Another Moscow paper, Nezavisimaya Gazeta,reports Russian sources stating "the J-11B is an absolute imitation of theSu-27SK."
Beijing making its own copies of Sukhoiairplanes, or "Sushki" as they are sometimes referred to in Russianslang, has Moscowworried. A copy of the Su-27SK has the potential to do to Russia's defense market abroad what Chineseindustry has done to the USconsumer electronics industry. Just as Wal-Mart contains almost an entirelyChinese-made selection of products, the future world fighter market could becrowded with cheap, Chinese copies of the Su-27. Some of the more dire Russianpredictions are that the Shenyang plant could flood the export market with asmany as 5000 J-11Bs, which would eliminate many of the Western and even Russianalternative choices for numerous nations looking to upgrade their air forces.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta reports that as a consequence, "Russia has officially informed China that itconsiders the J-11B to be an absolute copy of the Su-27SK and that this is adirect violation of the two nations' contractual agreement. Moscow has further promised that it willinitiate legal proceedings in order to protect its intellectual propertyrights."
However, it is hard to see in what legal forum Moscow can address these grievances. China belongs to the World Trade Organisation(WTO), but Russiadoes not. Even if there was a clear-cut path to make a legal case against China they would be on questionable legalgrounds--pirating of software and other copyrighted products in Russia is aswidespread as anywhere in the world.
But the larger problem that Moscow has is itsdependence on Chinafor export orders of other defense products. Currently most of the military jetengines produced in Russiaare exported to China.Beijing is alsoone of the only prospective customers for a slew of new-generation Russianweapon systems. Taking legal action against their Asian fellow travellers canonly mean that that the drop in defense exports to China, which has fallen bymore than 60 percent in recent years, will become even more pronounced.
During a lending crisis one will hear that "if you borrow $5,000 thebank owns you, but if you borrow $5 million you own the bank." Transposedto the situation in Russia'sdefense industry, this means that there is little Moscow can do to reverse the situation it nowfinds itself in. Having invested so much in its defense business with China, Moscowwould find it almost impossible to cut these ties and give up this marketentirely.
At the same time, the price for staying in the Chinesemarket is like a high-stakes poker game. Giving up what you have already throwninto the pot on the bet that you can get Beijingto finance a next generation of military technology. The risks are high forRussian industry--and even higher for the rest of the world. The question nowis where will the market for Russian weaponry on the international marketend--and that for products made in China(based on what they have learned from Russia) begin? The answer willdepend on who is cleverer--the Russians or the pirates--in this next round.