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[Tempatan]
V15: Kargo MH370 Byk Manggis p13, MAS Nafi Tukar Shift Pilot p14
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thieo posted on 17-3-2014 11:41 PM 
sumber or artikel yang explain?
http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/6027228/1/#319
Sanity Check - 3/16/14 16:00 Zulu
There is (will be) a link to this post in my profile under "homepage"
• 3/16/14 1600Z update.
• The facts have not changed much, however speculation and discussion has shifted to potential human actors - including crew.
• I've tried to be as factually accurate as I can - but I'm not an expert in each system - so if there factual errors please advise.
• I've added sections on: Cargo, Fuel, Conspiracies, Pilot related conspiracy. I've bolstered ACARS/SATCOM.
• Edited to add Primary vs Secondary Radar discussion.
First a synopsis
• The ship took off normally and headed on course to Beijing
• The last ACARS transmission was 01:07 local. Confusion continues about if and when ACARS was turned off (See ACARS below)
• The last comms were a normal hand-off from Malaysia to Vietnam control at about 1:30 local. It was a normal 'good night' on the Malaysian side, but Vietnam was not contacted.
• NOTE: Saying "good night" or "so long" or "see you" or "Go Broncos" (okay not that one) is very common for handoffs.
• The aircraft dropped off secondary radar with no communication from the cockpit.
• There are reports of a climb to 45K, uneven descent and some changes in altitude. Since this is based on primary radar - altitude data is somewhat uncertain. The last has been reported as 29,500ft but that seems in dispute.
• There are subsequent primary radar returns west over Malacca Straight and then north west. Since it is primarily radar - a reflection - it does identify the a/c, however it has been correlated with SATCOM pings so confidence is high that the returns are from MH370
• SATCOM system pings continued for 7+ (last ping at 08:11 local) hrs after LOS (loss of signal)
• SATCOM pings do not locate the aircraft but based on correlation to signal strength there are two loci that indication aircraft distance from the Satellite.
• These are not paths and I have changed my language to reflect that. They represent a distance from the satellite.
• Loci one is north over Andaman Sea, Bay of Bengal as far as Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan and is consistent with primary radar.
• Loci two is south over the India Ocean west of Australia. We've had no reports of radar signals in that area.
• The last SATCOM ping was at 8:11 am Malaysian time. At that time it would be dark on the north radius and light over the south radius.
• Best data I have is SATCOM pings are hourly - so the 8:11 ping could be up to 1 hour before the aircraft stopped 'pinging'.
• We have no ELT signal detected.
• While authorities (Malaysian) have not confirmed this is a hijacking or purposeful event - it is believed that is highly likely by most, however, motivation is unknown.
• Debris reported by Greek oil tanker has already been reported as not relevant.
ACARS
• ACARS is an automated aircraft communication system that transmits a/c information, primarily maintenance information, to maintenance facilities like the airline, Boeing, Engine Manf, etc.
• ACARS is NOT a flight system - it is not needed for safe flight.
• ACARS is a subscription service and costs money. All indications are the MH370 was subscribed only to engine health monitoring and data from that is sent to Rolls Royce.
• ACARS communicates via VHF or SATCOM (and maybe Wifi at the gate). The communications channel depends on availability and is independent of the ACARS.
• ACARS can be instructed not to use SATCOM or VHF from the Cockpit. This would effectively stop ACARS from sending data. Access to the EE bay is not required.
• The Malaysian prime minister said (quote):
• "We can say with a high degree of certainty that the Aircraft Communication Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) was disabled just before the reached the East coast of Peninsula Malaysia".
• No explanation of how that determination could be made has been released.
• OPINION: The most likely conjecture I've seen is that ACARS was using VHF comms at that point and some indication of ACARS ceasing communication via VHF can be made. However, this has not been confirmed and it seems to me this could be consistent with ACARS swapping to SATCOM mode?
ACARS data from MH370
• The ACARS system sent 2 engine health reports to Rolls Royce, both prior to the LOS event.
• The Rolls Royce page seems to indicate that a 'snapshot' of engine data would be sent at: takeoff, climb, cruise and landing. We know 2 ACARS Engine Health reports were received, so that would be consistent with the 1st two.
• Based on this, we would expect a cruise and landing report. We have heard of neither.
• The Engine Health report received prior to LOS had 'interesting' altitude data/fluctuations including 40K drop in a minute. That data is suspect.
• Since no "landing" report was received, then either the ACARS communication was disabled, or the a/c did not land.
• We have not heard if ACARS would send a report upon fuel starvation flame-out.
SATCOM
• SATCOM is a communications channel - Satellite Communications. It is a radio system that uses satellites to communicate various information.
• SATCOM is not ACARS - it is one of the channels ACARS can use.
• The SATCOM system on MH370 was connecting to Inmarsat 3 satellites. In the area covered, the only satellite with coverage is IOR.
Big version: Width: 720 Height: 516 File size: 199kb
• Since only 1 satellite has coverage, no triangulation is possible. All that can be determined is distance from the satellite. This has been used to define 2 potential loci were the a/c could have been.
Big version: Width: 1024 Height: 768 File size: 91kb
• NOTE: While these may appear as paths - they are not. They are simply a set of potential locations based upon ping data. The aircraft could have been in a constant standard turn circle somewhere along one of the loci (red lines) and the satellite could not tell. We only know it was somewhere along those lines.
SATCOM Pings
• The SATCOM system sends (or responds to) periodic 'pings' to/from the satellites. These 'pings' are a network communication that says "I am here."
• SATCOM pings are not communicating a/c status, they are part of the communications channel. They are akin to registration pings on a cell system.
• The last pings were detected at 8:11am Malaysia time. This does not mean the aircraft went down or landed at this time, only that the last ping was 8:11. Source I've seen indicate the pings are hourly - but that is not confirmed.
• SATCOM pings provide no aircraft heading, speed or altitude information, however, distance from the Satellite can be estimated, and ONLY distance.
• Based on analysis of the SATCOM pings by Inmarsat, two possible loci have been predicted based upon a radius from the satellite picking up the pings.
• SATCOM pings would be sent as long as the system (aircraft) was power up and withing coverage area. So, on the ground, if powered up (thanks to mandala499).
• People have asked if SATCOM pings could come from a crashed plane if the right parts survived.
• Very unlikely. The system is not self contained, the equipment, power and antennas are separate.
CRV/FDR Data
• The CVR (cockpit voice recorder) and FDR (flight data recorder) do not transmit data in flight.
• They do emit sonic pings if immersed. These will last a minimum of 30 days. We can expect sonar is being used to listen for them.
• The CVR reportedly is a 120 minute CVR so it would contain only the last 120 minutes of flight (presuming it did not fail or was turned off prior to that).
• I don't have data form the recording time of the FDR, but it is typically much longer.
Primary versus Secondary Radar (brief tutorial)
• Primary radar is based on the original military usage. It sends out a strong (KW to MW) signal and looks for a reflection from something.
• Primary radar provides distance and location. Comparing returns speed can be determined. Strength of return can indicate size.
• Stealth a/c and ships are designed to absorb or miss-direct the reflection so primary radar cannot see them.
• Primary radar does not depend on the transponder, so turning off a transponder will not make an a/c disappear from primary.
• Primary radar is less prevalent than secondary - and more typically military tho ATC's do use it.
• Secondary Radar is really not Radar in the defined sense. It is directional communication.
• In secondary radar a directional signal is sent out (much less powerful than primary). Any a/c with a transponder that receives it will respond (the transponder responds) with information about the aircraft.
• Combined with the direction of the outgoing beam, the time of flight information and returned information, the a/c location and identity (and other info depending on the mode) is returned.
• Secondary radar is the primary method used by ATC.
• If the transponder fails or is turned off - secondary radar will not see the a/c.
• In the case of MH370
• The transponder was turned off - so the a/c disappeared from secondary (ATC) radar.
• A target was tracked west, then northwest using primary radar. That target was correlated with SATCOM pings help determine it was MH370.
Way-point Tracks
• The use of way-points to the navigate are conjecture. They happen to line up with the direction indicated by the primary radar returns and Inmarsat data to the north.
• While many believe the aircraft was under control - we cannot conclude if these way-point were used, or just along the path.
Airworthiness Directive
• The airworthiness directive about corrosion near the SATCOM antenna does not apply to this ship.
• The ship DOES have SATCOM - but uses a different antenna
Cargo and Lithium Battery Fires.
• There are reports that the cargo in MH370 did not receive normal X-ray screening.
• There are also statements that the shipment held nothing hazardous or remarkable.
• There are reports of a shipment of lithium batteries on the a/c and that perhaps they caused a fire.
• It seems very unlikely a fire could be intense enough to disable the crew, but then the a/c would survive and fly for 7+ hours.
• Opinion: as a firefighter, I doubt this. The fire would destroy the a/c.
Aircraft Fuel State
• It is reported the aircraft 45 to 60 minutes extra fuel. This would amount to about 7-7.5 hrs of fuel. This is a normal amount for this route.
Search Areas (including those that have be halted)
• Along the planed route. I believe searching in this area is ending or decreasing based on new data indicating the a/c is not there
• West over the Malacca straight
• North west of Malacca straight
• Along the two loci predicted by the SATCOM pings which continue north to Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan and south to the India Ocean.
• These are huge search areas - I do not have a good handle on what assets are deployed where
• It appears the north loci is considered more likely because of primary radar signals that roughly correlate.
• I would expect review of primary radar west of Australia is in process if not done.
Mobile phones
• We continue to have lots of discussion on "mobile phones" - can the connect in flight, etc.
• We don't have any reports or evidence of that any passenger or crew mobile phone has registered with any network.
• Until we have that data or reports - I believe the mobile phone discussions are not useful.
Conspiracy Theories
• There are lots of conspiracy theories out there - from the Malaysian government hiding something to pilot suicide, to hijacking to whatever.
• The breadth of the countries searching alone makes me discount many of the government is hiding it aspects.
• It is likely there are covert (secret) resources in the area that are trying to provide the info without revealing themselves.
• Currently, it seems most believe there is some positive action here - hijacker or crew based.
• Opinion: Mostly, I believe this is because a mechanical failure that selectively terminates communication, incapacitates the crew/passengers, but then allows the a/c to fly on uncontrolled for 7 hours seems unlikely.
• Investigations of crew have begun in earnest.
• Despite the belief this is incident required human actions - we have no evidence of that. Rather - no other theory seems credible.
• Some of the more prevalent.
• The pilot (senior, not FO) hijacked the plane to commit suicide. (See Pilot Conspiracy below).
• Freescale engineers have been hijacked for sensitive US data. As an engineer who has worked with Freescale - I find that unsupportable. Companies send groups of employees around all the time. While many companies have policies about the # of executives on a flight - that typically is not enforced on regular employees.
• There was something in the Cargo worth stealing - which is why it was not screened. Note: this makes no sense to me. It would require involvement of lots of people on the ground and it would be much easier to steal, on the ground.
• The US hijacked the 777 using onboard FBW technology to fly it like a drone to Diego Garcea (this one wins the insanity case).
Pilot Related Conspiracy Theories (some of this is my opinion).
• The crew and passengers are a focus of investigation. Particularly the crew, because of the difficulty of managing an external cockpit intrusion.
• The pilot has received a lot of attention because: 1) He supports opposition politics, 2) He has a mongo flight simulator, 3) There are rumors of family problems (debunked).
• To address the data on a few of these:
• 1) The pilot supports opposition politics and may have been at a trial of the opposition leader (confirmed 'ordinary' member of opposition party). Opinion: What is the motive for suicide in this case?
• 2) The pilot has a very fancy flight simulator. People claim he used it to for this. Opinion: A 777 pilot does not need to train for the flying done - he knows how to do that stuff already. What he needs it planning for violent action/takeover. A flight simulator is no help.
• 3) There are rumors of family problems reported from China. This has been reported as untrue - and generated laughter in the latest pressor
IN summary what we know is. (This has NOT changed)
• The a/c disappeared from secondary radar and stopped communicating. We do not know why or what happened to it.
• There is evidence from SATCOM and Radar that the a/c traveled west - then most likely north west.
• SATCOM signals show the a/c was operating till at least 8:11am Malaysia time, over 7 hrs total flight time
• We have not found it despite multiple governmental agencies from multiple countries searching hard.
What seems likely.
• A hijacking or positive intervention by human agency seems likely.
• The erratic altitude and course may indicate a struggle on board.
• While we would like to believe the a/c landed safely somewhere, that seems unlikely to have happened unobserved.
That is all.
Respectfully Submitted - rcair1
[Edited 2014-03-16 12:07:53]
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tetiba plak memalam nihenpon aku receive no dari +1-xxx-xxxx...CIA ka?? |
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mcm2 speku yg melibatkan politik ni I mcm separa hadam la... mcm sangat mengarut.. ni satu contoh: bang nuar telah "meminjam" sejumlah wang yg besar kepada negara TTT untuk run pilihanraya..kemudian telah berjanji akan memberikan pulangan termasuk interest setelah dilantik jadi pm. namum.. beliau tewas dan x mampu membayar hutang tersebut..maka pihak TTT kata, hutang boleh langsai dengan pertukaran satu kapal terbang!*tu dia haI mcm2 version* |
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protonpersona posted on 18-3-2014 01:15 AM
tetiba plak memalam nihenpon aku receive no dari +1-xxx-xxxx...CIA ka??
yindon caprut nak mandrem you too, jaga-jaga |
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Mudah2an MH370 dapat dijumpai walo dimana berada pun. Aminnn
AllahuAkbar AllahuAkbar AllahuAkabar !!!
Last edited by camrey on 18-3-2014 01:37 AM
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macam mane rakyat USA islamophobia camtu jugak ummah melayu benci USA. same je dua kali lima. Dua dua ignorant. Ape yang anda percaya tu betul ke? |
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C.K posted on 17-3-2014 10:41 PM
Bukan..woh semete itu manggis...woh sto itu akak lupa macam mana rupa..tapi buah itu cuma boleh di ...
Dlm bahasa melayu panggil buah sentul kak.. Org ganu jer panggil woh sto...wah lama nya tak mkn jeruk woh sto...
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protonpersona posted on 18-3-2014 12:59 AM
51) salah satu passport curi tersebut membeli tiket dari KUALA LUMPUR - BEIJING - ARMSTERDAM - COPEN ...
sapa penulis asal teori konspirasi bodoh ni? x abeh2 bg AMARAN - sekadar teori fantasi saya sahaja
dia ingt ni cerita lawak ke nak berfantasi bagai... org mcm ni baik polis tangkap sumbat jail lg bagus.
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Malaysia
Report: Police clears MH370 pilot of terror links
March 16, 2014
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A security guard stands at the entrance of a compound where the house of pilot Zaharie Ahmad Shah is located in Shah Alam, near Kuala Lumpur March 15, 2014. — Reuters picA security guard stands at the entrance of a compound where the house of pilot Zaharie Ahmad Shah is located in Shah Alam, near Kuala Lumpur March 15, 2014. — Reuters picKUALA LUMPUR, March 16 — Police scrutinising Malaysia Airlines (MAS) pilot Zaharie Ahmad Shah who captained missing flight MH370 did not find terrorist connections, a local daily reported.
According to the New Sunday Times (NST), police also questioned MAS ground staff and other employees who were in contact with the jetliner before it took off on March 8, but found nothing suspicious.
“Checks had cleared him of any involvement with terrorist or extremist groups,” the NST quoted an unnamed source as saying, referring to Zaharie.
The newspaper cited another source as saying that the police had probed MAS employees, including ground staff, catering staff, ground support units and runway marshalls.
Yesterday, the police searched the homes of Zaharie and co-pilot Fariq Abdul Hamid in Shah Alam shortly after Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak told a news conference that MH370 was diverted deliberately, after someone on board switched off the Boeing 777’s communications systems.
Najib said yesterday investigation on the disappearance of MH370 will now refocus of the passengers and crew onboard.
NST reported the police as carrying two brown bags after searching Fariq’s house.
Schoolmates described Zaharie, who has logged 18,360 flying hours since joining MAS in 1981, as someone who would never compromise the safety of his passengers.
In a report by local daily The Star today, former classmate Mohd Nasir Othman said Zaharie had set up a flight simulator at home because he was a “gadget geek”.
“He would never do anything that would endanger people’s lives,” Mohd Nasir was quoted as saying.
In the Gallery
Some women and children write messages and signatures on a 'Sign for MH370' banner at the viewing gallery in KLIA, on 16 March, 2014. — Picture by Saw Siow Feng
NST reported that Zaharie has a Boeing 777 flight simulator at home and that the 52-year-old was certified by the Department of Civil Aviation as an examiner.
In another article, The Star quoted sources as saying that investigations on MH370 crew and passengers would focus on those with aviation knowledge, as well as examine the political and religious leanings, travel patterns and hobbies of those on board the plane, which had carried 239 people, including two infants.
The paper reported Zaharie as posting in an online forum in November 2012 that he had built a flight simulator himself.
Najib also said yesterday that the final satellite communication with the plane occurred at 8.11am on March 8, indicating it continued flying after its transponder was disabled and the engine performance data link with MAS was severed more than seven hours before. But the satellite data did not indicate the plane’s location at the time.
It was also confirmed that military radar definitively tracked MH370 as it changed course and headed west towards the Indian Ocean.
The prime minister said that search and rescue efforts in the South China Sea would be called off and pointed to two corridors where the plane could possibly be located: a northern arc from northern Thailand to the border of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan in central Asia, or a southern one from Indonesia to the southern Indian Ocean.
- See more at: http://www.themalaymailonline.co ... kCba5.BULfQwR2.dpuf |
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protonpersona posted on 18-3-2014 12:59 AM
51) salah satu passport curi tersebut membeli tiket dari KUALA LUMPUR - BEIJING - ARMSTERDAM - COPEN ...
INFORMASi baguSS
teruskan berdiskUsi.
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Naa.Yaa posted on 17-3-2014 07:58 PM
maaf kalo artikel ni dah ada...sbb aku nak sgt percaya artikel ni..rasa mustahil sangat rakyat malay ...
Kenal juga pilot yang berkata kata ni.
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munchkin posted on 18-3-2014 02:58 AM
Kenal juga pilot yang berkata kata ni.
Siapa?? nak tahu juga
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asamfish posted on 18-3-2014 02:48 AM
Malaysia
Report: Police clears MH370 pilot of terror links
See? Semua orang kena siasat. And from the berita he's gadget geek. Satu video yang i berminat is capt ajar cuci air cond. ajar baiki window seal. Dia macam tim the toolman gitu. Pandai masak. Capt crew and passenger where are youuuu
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Presiden_Lanun posted on 18-3-2014 02:59 AM
Siapa?? nak tahu juga
Tu artikel page satu ada mention nama dia. Kenal gitu ja.
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munchkin posted on 18-3-2014 03:05 AM
Tu artikel page satu ada mention nama dia. Kenal gitu ja.
akak ni, tak tidur dengan spouse ka? |
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matpiah posted on 17-3-2014 03:55 PM
sepanjang sehari suntuk aku melancong ke perlis hari jumaat lalu, aku jumpa 2 gerai yg dah jual ha ...
Kebiasaan musim harumanis bermula awal bln may...Entah2 uolss kna tipu..
mggu ni iols nk blik sana... Nti iols riki2 betul ke buah harumanis dh ada....
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Post time 18-3-2014 01:10 AM
![[VIU] ‘BIDAAH’ - FAIZAL HUSSEIN, RIENA DIANA, HASNUL RAHMAT, FATTAH AMIN, VANIDA IMRAN, MARISSA YASMIN](https://uf.cari.com.my/forumx/mforum/forum/202503/27/091206q3wzmquo3lhr5ish.png)
