ACCOUNTANT -

ecam · Post time 6-9-2006 09:54 AM

kalo pakai model2 yg gah nih mmg senang sket nak impress org besa2 nih..
kalo nak lagi gila pakai APT.. semak mata
anyway congratsss

Gemukkkkkkk · Post time 6-9-2006 10:20 AM

alang-alang cakap pasal capm ni..  boleh tak discuss in deep?  boleh le aku belajar sikit..

masa buat calculations kan, cemana kita nak determine risk free rate, beta dan equity risk premium?  aku memang tak reti ni..  nak copy paste market trend, kita ni masih lagi baru lepas milestones 97-99 dan post-99 punya period..  market kita ni pun, masih the reactive type..

cemana korang deal dengan goodwill dan frs treatment nanti?  tapi kalau malakoff, aku rasa tak risau sangat kan..  unless tetiba polisi gomen bertukar ikut suka je..  ni pun satu variable..  pening..

dan bod aku punya opinion pulak, konon aku pluck data out of air ikut suka je..  diorang prefer asset-based valuation je..  aku nak goreng-goreng pun tak leh pasal ada 2-3 akauntan/lawyer dalam bod..

aku memang pening le bila bod bagi assignment due diligence..  setiap tahun ada 2-3 kali..  tapi tak jadi beli-beli pulak tu (kecuali 2)..  ingat aku full time machai diorang ke..
yang best cuma dapat travel je..  apatah lagi kalau data room kat oversea he he he

ecam · Post time 6-9-2006 10:59 AM

basic capm
i. market beta is always 1
ii. only 1 factor affect d dependent variable - market factor
iii. stock beta is derived from regression against market data (bese pakai index -KLCI kalo kat mesia)
iv. kalo stock beta = 2, maksudnya performance stock tsbt dua kali ganda fr market
v. utk diversification = carik stock yg beta negatively correlated so that overall stock beta (unsystematic risk) akan dioffset, tinggal market risk jer yg kita mmg xleh nak buat ape

vi. dlm kes returns

E(Ri) = alpha + BiRm + ei
Ri = return on asset i
Rm = Return on market
alpha - constant
beta i = stock beta
ei = error term --> dlm theory capm ei dah takde.. tapi kalo buat empirical research mmg kena bubuh ei nih

vii.APT (arbitrage pricing theory) is an extended version of capm.. it assumed that there are more than 1 factor that affect d return or price or whatever the dependent variable is.
biasa economic variables yg digunakan are M2, KLCI(market),IP(indus. prod), t-bills rate, inflations

viii. raw data kena transform dulu, xleh pakai directly sbb ada issues eg autocorrelation, heterokedasticity, multicollinearity bla bla haku x ingat sumer.. bese researcher(or sesapa yg nak buat study) guna rate of change, natural log bla bla bla utk eliminate issues tu

haku ade buat paperwork yg guna capm n apt nih.. kene refer balik so that x misguide korang.. wakakaka
nanti haku sambung lagik

[ Last edited by ecam at 6-9-2006 02:15 PM ]

Gemukkkkkkk · Post time 6-9-2006 11:08 AM

orait.. nanti sambung..

terimakasih.. ni la contoh bezanya kalau suruh internal staff buat due-diligence dengan hire big 4 buatkan.. banyak mende tak tau.. nak explain kat bod pun tak susah pasal big 4 bila explain, ada aura big 4 he he he.. tapi kalau aku yang mengadap.. aduiii.. ada saja sorang-dua nak tunjuk pandai konon dispute itu-ini..

sebenarnya kan.. apa yang aku nampak la.. tak kisah la method apa dipakai, janji pandai explain dah uatkan bod faham in a simple way kan? bayangkan kalau aku explain cam kau explain.. silap-silap ada yang berdengkur (kes betul ni.. aduiii.. kau bayangkan la, sesama diorang dah senyum-senyum tahan gelak.. aku pulak kena kontrol serius kat depan diorang.. aku pun nak join gelak jugak kalau boleh)

ecam · Post time 6-9-2006 11:21 AM

hahahaha.. mmg tu problem yg bese... kekadang naik hangin gak tapi nak wat cemana kan.. kita as machai nih buat je laaaa..
big 4 bukan semestinya d best.. kekadang diorang copy paste edit jer fr similar cases yg diornag penah handle..
kelebihan pakai method2 gila cam capm ngan apt nih, theory nih dah tested n proven.. kalo kite tau brief history n methodologies yg digunakan senang skett nak counter soalan2 cynical yg slalu kuar dr mulut bod

bagi mende mudah laa.. ramai org pk yg stock price is based on accounting report.. x sebenarnya.. stock price is a reflection of discounted future income (dividends/capital gains)
sbb tu masa pecah cerita top glove kene raid pasal foreign workers xdak permit stock price dia jatuh gegila... latest example, bila MoF announce co tax turun market terus rally

Gemukkkkkkk · Post time 6-9-2006 11:27 AM

tu le.. tapi bod aku ni memang conservative le.. diorang mesti nak compare dengan asset-based valuation je.. lepas tu, tak mau goodwill pasal nanti kena write-off..
gile la.. mana ada orang nak jual company dia murah-murah.. mesti le up price sikit.. bod cakap guna modal air liur je.. yang negotiate, kitorang jugak..

ecam · Post time 6-9-2006 11:34 AM

bod members ko background ape? military ker? former govt servant ker? tokey sayur ker?

pd aku asset based valuation nih mmg ngarut especially bab M&A
kalo fair value tu buleh laaaa tolerate lagi...

macam proton n agusta tu.. from strictly finance/accounts view mmg ngarut sbb duit byk kuar tapi hasil xda... but from strategic point of view 700 million price to get d technologies n brand for motocycles is damn cheap.. imagine kalo cuba buat sendiri..mau 50 taun amik masa tu pun blom tentu lagi

p/s haku tgh baca balik paper aku

Gemukkkkkkk · Post time 6-9-2006 11:41 AM

nak buat cemana.. asset-based valuation ni le paling senang nak tawar-menawar dapat murah.. lagipun, company yang ditarget, semua tangible assets saja.. jadi tak susah nak dapatkan fair value..

bod members aku.. businessmen tapi background akauntan, lawyer, etc.. doktor, ex-akauntan, gfc mnc lain, etc.

suraya76 · Post time 6-9-2006 11:41 AM

best la.. u all discuss la..
i perati jer la...
hehehe.. ada yang marah ni..

pasal u nak tau camana nak dapatkan Rf, Rm, and Beta tu kena tengok kat market data la..
boleh ambil kat website klse-ris
sobila dpt data tu boleh la kira

suraya76 · Post time 6-9-2006 11:47 AM

Originally posted by ecam at 6-9-2006 11:34 AM
bod members ko background ape? military ker? former govt servant ker? tokey sayur ker?

pd aku asset based valuation nih mmg ngarut especially bab M&A
kalo fair value tu buleh laaaa tolerate ...

Sem depan ada one new course called M&A

ecam · Post time 6-9-2006 11:58 AM

agreed.. asset based mmg yg paling senang.. tapi yg bahaya nya kalo accts dia byk hanky panky yg auditor sendiri x prasan/mmg x reti/close one eye... maunya dia inflate asset gila2
huhuhuuhu

ecam · Post time 6-9-2006 12:05 PM

sem depan??

suraya76 · Post time 6-9-2006 12:50 PM

Originally posted by ecam at 6-9-2006 12:05 PM
sem depan??

Semester 1 2007/2008 Mergers & Acquisition & Corporate Restructuring
kalau ikutkan itu my final sem la..

Gemukkkkkkk · Post time 6-9-2006 01:04 PM

ada yang marah? kenapa? siapa?

Gemukkkkkkk · Post time 6-9-2006 01:05 PM

ye lah.. aku pun terkejut.. sem depan? maknanya suraya buat presentation apa untuk mmc? ingatkan tadi, buat presentation kerja yang mmc suruh buat?

Gemukkkkkkk · Post time 6-9-2006 01:07 PM

setuju.....

ecam · Post time 6-9-2006 02:25 PM

sambungan CAPM

selepas dpt Expected Return on asset i - E(Ri) fr equation E(Ri) = a + BiRm + ei,
nilai E(Ri) akan digunakan sebagai discount rate yg sesuai. After that, the said rate is applied using Dividend Discount Model (DDM) and projection of growth in the dividend payments to be made. pAstu cam biasa cari present value.

Pi = Present Value of dividends in d future + capital gains or target selling price
kita akan dpt harga yg appropriate utk satu2 share tu. ini yg selalu direfer sbg
target price dlm share analysis.
kalo empirical price > market price , maknanya market x berada pd equilibrium, or kalo beli, kita beli at a discount. vice versa kalo rega market > empirical price (Pi), kita beli at premium.

limitations fr using CAPM nih, growth yg digunakan adalah ESTIMATION, so most probably akan berlainan. Thats why it is very important to project the growth accurately.

CAPM jugak perlu dicounter check dgn menggunakan teknik PV of future cash flow from the investments (purchase of the stocks) utk menguatkan lagi valuation yg dah dibuat. mana tau ade silap kat memana...

aku rasa basic capm dah dicover. kalo ade tambahan/soalan/kritik adalah dialu alukan.

credit to William Sharpe, Nobel Laurette for his work on CAPM

suraya76 · Post time 6-9-2006 02:26 PM

Originally posted by Gemukkkkkkk at 6-9-2006 01:05 PM
ye lah.. aku pun terkejut.. sem depan? maknanya suraya buat presentation apa untuk mmc? ingatkan tadi, buat presentation kerja yang mmc suruh buat?

sorry la kalau salah fhm...