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auntie nak tau,camne kita nak predict bila akan turun n naiknyamatawang asing?let say OZ dollar... sbb hari tu,auntie nak g Oz..dalamtime raya,duit dia dalam 2.7++ kita...tup tup,lepas2 raya,naik sampaila ni dah 3.09 plak
auntie_girl Post at 18-11-2010 15:56 
ramai yang boleh predict... tapi tak pasti berapa ramai yang akan predict dengan tepat..
short term predictions normally are more reliable..
long term tu is a bit difficult... banyak sangat uncertainties.......
sebaiknya dapatkan pandangan professional... eg bank
for hedging purposes bank will have to forecast exchange rate in the future
their treasury or money-market dept will be the best to do that...
kalau nak predict sendiri pun bleh.. kena rajin baca paper and dengar news laaaaaaaa..  |
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Did the market slide as much as the index indicated Thursday?
PETALING JAYA: The FTSE Bursa Malaysia KL Composite Index (FBM KLCI) ended lower yesterday, but did it really slide as much as 6.89 points to 1,496.65 points?
Data obtained from Bloomberg showed that the main index was weighed down by steep falls led by Malayan Banking Bhd (Maybank), Genting Bhd and PPB Group Bhd.
Maybank alone dragged down the FBM KLCI by 4.8 points.
But here's the catch.
Shares in Maybank went ex-dividend yesterday. Based on adjusted reference price of RM8.58, the stock actually rose 24 sen, or 2.8%, at its closing price of RM8.82.
That means Maybank's impact on the FBM KLCI yesterday would have been positive, rather than negative, if the index's calculation were based on the adjusted price.
Instead, the index calculation was based on Maybank's closing price of RM9.10 on Tuesday. The market was closed on Wednesday for a holiday.
A spokesman at Bursa Malaysia Bhd, the exchange operator, confirmed yesterday that calculation of the index was not adjusted to reflect payment of cash dividend.
So the base price for Maybank yesterday remained at RM9.10.
It is likely that FBM KLCI would have stayed above the 1,500-point level if the calculation of Maybank's share in the index were based on the ex-dividend price.
The FBM KLCI is made up of a basket of 30 counters, with each counter given different weightage based on free float and trading liquidity.
Maybank has a 10.1% weightage, giving it the biggest sway among the top 30 counters. Close rival CIMB Group Holdings Bhd accounted for 9.9% of the FBM KLCI.
For the record, Maybank's shares went ex-dividend yesterday to make way for the 44 sen a share final payout for the year.
Maybank shareholders can opt to reinvest their cash dividend into new Maybank shares.
The new shares were priced at RM7.70 apiece.
sos (source) : http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2010/11/19/business/7459956&sec=business
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Reply 15# auntie_girl
There is no stupid question...turun naik matawang (currency) is control by central bank through monetory policy....cthnya kt malaysia by Bank Negara...monetory policy aimed at influencing interest rates which drive currency rate relatif to other currencies dgn different interest rate...cthnya...domestic interest rate influence overall economic activity....kalau interest rate rendah, selalunya menggalakkan pinjaman, investment, comsumption...while higher interest rate plak tend to reduce borrowing and increase saving...market usually constantly speculating about the direction of interest rate....information that drive the interest rate outlook plak selalunya economic growth and inflation...the stronger the growth...or the higher inflation pressure...the more likely interest rate move higher....
dalam kes NZD, trading heavily influenced by interest rate and USD move...it tend to move relative to USD...USD go down...the NZD go high....
other than interest rate,growth and inflation....employment, deficits, geopolitic issue, political uncertainty also give effect to currency movement..
How to predict.... |
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apa yg aku faham, study dan make own analisis sepanjang minggu lepas...3 main theme will drive overall investment vehicle towards end of the year. Which are QE2, Euro Debt Crisis and China
Euro Debt Crisis, story neverending
Ireland (battered by property slump, similar cam subprime US year 2008), initially denied to accept bailout from EU..but finally signaled that they will accept bailout worth 10billion USD. lepas tue, attention turn to portugal pula. Greece, yg the 1st nation in euro community accept bailout recently, has recorded defisit up to 15.4% of GDP, 1.8% higher than forecast. So, Greece could be in que again after portugal nnti.
China.
more tightening measures. Inflation is viewed as serious threat to economy of china. Another hike of interest rate is foreseen in very short time (within 2 weeks after 1st hike)
US
as per previous post by other forummers...isu yg sama ttg QE2 dan now QE3.. |
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The Week Ahead
Market activities would concentrate in early part of this week and liquidity will decrease on Thanksgiving holiday on Thursdays and onwards. Ireland and China will remain the main focus. In particular, we'd like to see if selling in Euro would resume after Ireland bailout becomes a "fact". Economic calendar is heavy on Tuesday and Wednesday with a number of important data from US, Eurozone, UK and Canada.
* Tuesday: German GDP final, Eurozone PMIs; Canada CPI, retail sales; US GDP, existing home sales, FOMC minutes
* Wednesday: German Ifo business climate; UK GDP; US Durable goods, jobless claims, personal income and spending; new home sales; Japan trade balance
* Thursday: Swiss employment; UK inflation hearings; Japan CPI
* Friday; German CPI, Eurozone M3; Swiss KOF
* Friday: Japan all industrial index; German PPI |
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cycle dia...
Unemployment rate + retail sales + home sales + manufacturing index + non manufacturing index + trade balance (and ada lagi kot, kalau tak lengkap tolong add) --------> GDP---------> inflation rate-------> interest rate decision------> currency value naik against its counterpart |
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Malaysia x lagi jadi sumber tenaga buruh yang murah lah
yowaza Post at 15-10-2010 09:39 
apa kaitannya bro..
ceta la lagi.. |
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Reply 23# auntie_girl
hoho...aku myself don't have basic economy from my formal education...my current profession pon engineer...but to live in real world...school grade doesn't matter...its your bank statement...understand term dlm economy able to make your bank statement better...with this believe aku study this economy theory walaupun i hate it during my university economy 101...its really good when some event happen and you have in your head why it is happening and what going to happen as a result from this event...and its happen as per your prediction...the feeling is good because you have the answer...please do try to learn... |
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apa kaitannya bro..
ceta la lagi..
amirul_nazri Post at 21-11-2010 23:18
ntah la apa kaitan nya !! |
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Reply auntie_girl
hoho...aku myself don't have basic economy from my formal education...m ...
koken_7 Post at 21-11-2010 23:57
well said bro.....i like thisss
after all its about money anywayyy |
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China suka kalau Yuan weak - supaya produk China kekal murah untuk export
US pulak suka kalau Yuan strong .. supaya import dari China berkurangan dan mengurangkan trade defisit ...
Tapi China tau .. US akan terus menerus buat quantitative easing .. US dollar akan semakin lemah ... dan menyebabkan export China ke US berkurangan ..
Jadi China akan terus melemahkan Yuan ...
Kedua-dua currency sedang "race to the bottom" ... |
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sebolehnya China nak kekalkan tambatan kadar rate Yuan dgn US Dollar sama seperti dulu...
ini utk elakkan banyak sektor perindustrian di China yg export oriented bankrupt...
akibatnya inflation rate makin tinggi di China... real estate di China rapidly increase...
tp yg amat membimbangkan pemimpin China adalah kenaikan harga makanan...
rakyat China membelanjakan 30% dr pendapatan mereka untuk makanan...
akibat banjir di China & kebakaran hutan termasuk di kawasan pertanian di Rusia dlm tahun ni...
reserve bekalan makanan di China makin kurang...
sblm ni... China akan keluarkan reserve makanan ke pasaran China jika rege makanan naik...
jika US teruskan dgn QE2 QE3 dan seterusnya...
mungkin China terpaksa revalue Yuan |
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sebolehnya China nak kekalkan tambatan kadar rate Yuan dgn US Dollar sama seperti dulu...
mungkin China terpaksa revalue Yuan
pengecatbintang Post at 22-11-2010 21:36 
jika China revalue Yuan... US Dollar akan makin rendah nilainya vs Yuan...
skrg ni... 70% barangan di Wal Mart US diimport dr China...
ramai rakyat US berbelanja barangan keperluan di Wal Mart...
maka inflation rate akan makin tinggi...
skrg ni... 41 juta rakyat US bergantung ngan foood stamp... |
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kuasa beli US Dollar yang makin turun telah menyebabkan negara OPEC berura2 utk naikkan rege crude oil kpd USD100 barrel...
jika US Dollar makin turun lg nilainya... mungkin lah agaknya akan makin tinggi rege crude oil dlm US Dollar
so, kpd negara yg mencuba supaya nilai currency nya kekal lebih rendah dr US Dollar (krn economynya export oriented)...
maka di negara tsbt, kadar inflasi yang sedang naik (akibat QE)...
akan mencanak2 naik lagi kadar inflasinya...
last2 satu dunia alami hyperinflation yg mungkin menyebabkan stagflation... |
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eurozone turmoil::ireland..spain...portugal::
sejak greece bailout 5 bulan lepas...euro jatuh teruk...skng kes ireland bailout ...spain ngn portugal plak specualtion akn follow baiout buatkan euro jatuh habis....
bg saye....stock akn jatuh lg....
tp...kenape yen still maintain..huhu..heran |
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Category: Belia & Informasi
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Post time 19-11-2010 11:38 AM
*paham sket2 je..ampun,auntie takde basic economi punya term etc2 neh
slow2 nanti auntie gugel makna 1-1
*
