Oscars 2019: who are this year's early frontrunners?
With major festivals over and done with, speculation has begun over which films and performances might score with Academy voters
Clockwise from top left – If Beale Street Could Talk, The Favourite, A Star is Born and Roma.Composite: Annapurna/Warner Bros/TIFFWith this year’s major festivals now out of the way, awards prognosticators have a clearer, if still incomplete, idea of the films we will all be talking about from now to the end of February. By this time last year, we had already seen seven of the nine nominees for best picture and as the frantic pace of Telluride, Venice and Toronto fades, it’s time to look back on the buzz that’s become most deafening.
While using the term frontrunner might be a tad presumptuous at this stage, it appears as if there are two films that have garnered the warmest notices thus far and both premiered during this year’s Venice film festival. The first is Roma, the intimate new drama from Alfonso Cuarón, that’s looking like Netflix’s first best picture contender, a major milestone for the streaming platform given their increase in alliances with world-class auteurs. They’re thirsty for it too, with a splashy campaign under way and reports that the film could be their first to receive an exclusive cinematic release before it heads online. Reviews have been almost universally enthusiastic, with the Guardian’s Peter Bradshaw awarding it five stars, calling it Cuarón’s “best film so far”. But is the often musty academy ready to introduce Netflix to the big league and will the fact that it’s in Spanish restrict its chances to the foreign language film category?
A far more Oscar-ready proposition is Bradley Cooper’s take on the music-driven romance A Star is Born, which scored a roaring reception in Venice and continued the hype through to Toronto. It’s a wildly popular crowd-pleaser with Cooper’s name mentioned in both lead actor and director categories but the performance that’s been talked about the most is that of Lady Gaga who has pretty much already won the best actress in a musical or comedy category at the Golden Globes but is set to compete in the best actress Oscar race as well. Her competition will probably include Olivia Colman who impressed Venice and Telluride audiences with her performance as Queen Anne in Yorgos Lanthimos’s darkly comic romp The Favourite which could also see either previous winners Emma Stone or Rachel Weisz in the best supporting actress category. One performance that quietly made a mark at Toronto last year, Glenn Close in the literary drama The Wife, was finally given a theatrical release over the summer and the six-time nominee could score another nod come January.
Audiences at Telluride and Toronto also gravitated towards Melissa McCarthy’s turn in Can You Ever Forgive Me?, the tragic-comic true story of author Lee Israel who became a master of forgery. She’s likely to pick up a best actress nomination while Richard E Grant, who plays her unlikely drinking buddy, is heading for a best supporting actor nod. The film landed better than The FrontRunner, another true story also premiering at the Colorado-based festival, the tale of disgraced senator Gary Hart. The Jason Reitman-directed drama, starring Hugh Jackman in the lead, received mixed reviews and by the time it screened in Toronto, buzz was quiet, although in a muted year for best actor, don’t count Jackman out just yet. There was a similar fate at Telluride for Joel Edgerton’s much-anticipated gay conversion drama Boy Erased which, despite a stellar cast including Nicole Kidman, Russell Crowe and Lucas Hedges, was met with politeness rather than passion and is unlikely to make an impression in this year’s race.
The same festival also saw two Oscar winners reveal two very different movies. Robert Redford looks like a sure thing, playing a stick-up artist in Old Man and the Gun, especially given his decision to retire, while Nicole Kidman’s turn as an amoral detective in Destroyer will probably be too dark for the academy, with the film also receiving mixed reviews.
On paper, critics weren’t sure what to expect from Steve McQueen’s Widows, a remake of an ITV Lynda La Plante series that marked a giant commercial leap into the multiplex for the director of 12 Years a Slave and Shame. But his ruthlessly entertaining star-studded thriller proved to be one of the most popular films in Toronto, garnering strong reviews with captivated audience reactions suggesting it will be a big hit on release. But is it too much of a genre offering to impress the academy? It certainly deserves inclusion and if they do go big for it then Viola Davis, Elizabeth Debicki and a fantastically sinister turn from Daniel Kaluuya could also figure in the race.
Ryan Gosling in First Man. Photograph: Daniel McFadden/APThe circuit also brought new films from Damien Chazelle and Barry Jenkins, two directors who dominated the Oscars back in 2017 (Chazelle picked up best director for La La Land while Jenkins scored a shock best picture victory with Moonlight). The former picked the story of the moon landing in the large-scale drama First Man, re-teaming with Ryan Gosling who took on the role of Neil Armstrong. Reviews were strong, with a few misgivings, suggesting that both the film and Gosling could factor into the conversation. Jenkins’ adaptation of James Baldwin’s If Beale Street Could Talk might have been bigger-budgeted than his breakout but it was far from a step into commercialism, its lyrical, slow-paced ode to the power of love unlikely to please everyone. But it was met with deservingly strong reviews from critics and is close to a sure thing for academy and guild voters, its beautiful artistry likely to be recognised in a number of categories (everything from production design to costumes) with Emmy-loved Regina King also seeming like a strong possibility for best supporting actress for her performance as a strong-willed mother.
One of the season’s biggest surprises came near the end of Toronto with the premiere of Green Book, a charming crowd-pleaser from Peter Farrelly that could be this year’s dark horse. It’s a broad look at racial tensions in the 60s with a warm heart and will likely continue to play like gangbusters until its smartly timed Thanksgiving release. Expect it to show up in a number of categories, including acting recognition for Viggo Mortensen and Mahershala Ali. It also pulled off a shock victory, winning the people’s choice award in Toronto. Many had expected it to go to A Star is Born (with help from some little monsters) but Green Book was voted the most popular film with audiences and given that in previous years, the title has gone to 12 Years a Slave, The King’s Speech and Slumdog Millionaire, it’s a strong sign of things to come.
Michael B Jordan and Daniel Kaluuya in Black Panther. Photograph: Matt Kennedy/Ph: Matt Kennedy..©Marvel Studios 2018The furore over the now-axed popular movie category was largely populated by pundits viewing it as a patronising way to ensure that Black Panther received some academy love but the film’s phenomenal year could see it become the first superhero adventure to receive a best picture nomination anyway. Acting-wise, Michael B Jordan’s show-stopping turn as Killmonger might see him receive a deserved best supporting actor nod too. If nominated, he could face Timothée Chalamet whose haunting performance as a meth addict in the grim drama Beautiful Boy received universal acclaim in Toronto even if the film itself was met with a mixed response. In Ben is Back, another film about addiction that premiered at the festival, Julia Roberts earned praise for playing a struggling mother and given her academy history, she could also gain a nod.
There are still some major films to debut, however, and ones that could have a huge impact on the race. The biggest of these is Vice from Adam McKay, following up The Big Short with a dramatisation of the life of Dick Cheney, played by Christian Bale, with Amy Adams taking on his wife. With a cast that also includes Steve Carell as Donald Rumsfeld, Sam Rockwell as George Bush, Bill Pullman as Nelson Rockefeller and Tyler Perry as Colin Powell, expect it to be a contender. There could also be love for Mary Poppins Returns, a film Disney has so much faith in that it reportedly led to them releasing their annual Star Wars offering in the summer just to avoid a clash. Emily Blunt, Meryl Streep, Lin-Manuel Miranda and Colin Firth star. Netflix also has Susanne Bier’s post-apocalyptic thriller Bird Box which could be big for star Sandra Bullock while both the actress and best supporting actress races could see nods for Mary Queen of Scots, starring Saoirse Ronan and Margot Robbie. Finally, Fox hopes to rise above the negative on-set drama for Queen biopic Bohemian Rhapsody which could launch Rami Malek into the best actor competition.
Ten safe nominee bets Lady Gaga – best actress, A Star is Born Alfonso Cuarón – best director, Roma Richard E Grant – best supporting actor, Can You Ever Forgive Me? Olivia Colman – best actress, The Favourite
Regina King – best supporting actress, If Beale Street Could Talk Robert Redford – best actor, Old Man and the Gun Timothée Chalamet – best supporting actor, Beautiful Boy Barry Jenkins – best director, If Beale Street Could Talk
Bradley Cooper – best actor, A Star is Born Glenn Close – best actress, The Wife
And The Winner Is: Part 2 Of The Early Look At 2019 Oscar Predictions Jim Amos Contributor
Actress and singer Lady Gaga, left, and actor and director Bradley Cooper pose for photographers upon arrival at the premiere of the film 'A Star Is Born' in London, Thursday, Sept. 27, 2018. (Photo by Vianney Le Caer/Invision/AP)
Back in September I took an early look at the movies and performances that might be taking the podium next February at the Dolby Theater in Hollywood to accept the 2019 Oscar. That Part One featured a look at Best Picture, Actor and Actress. As we know, that's only a small fraction of the trophies handed out on Oscar night and you'll be happy to know that this column won't take a detailed look at Best Foreign Film, Best Animated Short Film of, heaven forbid, Best Song, otherwise you'd be reading until the morning of nominations in January. So it's just the next three major categories - Best Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress and Director. If you thought the races were tight in the aforementioned categories, just wait until you see the wide open field for these three races.
So let's throw it all into the Oscar blender and see what emerges.
Best Supporting Actor: Sure Bets
The Academy is fond of, some would say lives for, rewarding actors for their career of work. Submitted for this year's approval is Sam Elliott, who has 99 films and TV shows to his credit but has never won or even been nominated for an Oscar. The 74-year-old's performance in A Star Is Born is one of his understated best. Listen for his name on the morning of nominations. On the other end of the age spectrum is 22-year-old Timothee Chalamet, who should get a nod for the gut-wrenching Beautiful Boy.
Best Supporting Actor: In The Running
Sam Rockwell's performance in Vice is supposedly one of his best, the same with Daniel Kaluuya in Widows and Adam Driver in BlacKkKlansman. Then there's veteran character actor Richard E. Grant, who could get a surprise nod for his portrayal of Jack Hock in Can You Ever Forgive Me. It wouldn't surprise anyone if Michael B. Jordan gets a nomination for Black Panther.
Best Supporting Actor: Long Shots
It sounds as if both Russell Crowe and Lucas Hedges will be pushed in this category for Boy Erased. Will they cancel each other out? Ditto with both Mahershala Ali and Viggo Mortensen in Peter Farrelly's Green Book. I hear Stephan James is brilliant in If Beale Street Could Talk, J.K. Simmons could add to his Oscar cabinet with his role in The Front Runner, and don't rule out Oscar going off the board and recognizing Josh Hamilton in Eighth Grade.
Best Supporting Actress: Sure Bets
It would be a shock to a grand total of no one if Amy Adams nabs her fifth nomination with her role as Lynne Cheney in Vice. Regina King is outstanding in The Hate U Give and, despite being nominated for three Emmys, she has never been nominated for an Oscar. Claire Foy was the early leader in this category for her role in First Man but the film did not have the impact either with critics or at the box office that Universal expected. Still, she figures to secure a nomination.
Best Supporting Actress: In The Running
Similar to the Crowe/Hedges battle in Boy Erased, Olivia Colman and Margot Robbie go head-to-head for their competing roles in Mary, Queen of Scots. Robbie was nominated last year for I, Tonya, but Colman, one of the finest British actress working today, has what is considered the stronger role and has never been nominated before. Speaking of nominations, Nicole Kidman has been in the running four times, winning once for The Hours, and could be in the mix with Boy Erased. Rachel Weisz is always a going concern and though The Favourite has received somewhat muted buzz, the Academy could call her name again. It was ten years ago that Amy Ryan was nominated for Gone Baby Gone. A decade later she is receiving raves for Beautiful Boy.
Best Supporting Actress: Long Shots
Rule out at your peril both Elizabeth Debicki in Widows and Michelle Yeoh in Crazy Rich Asians. Debicki has cut her teeth in such popcorn films as Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and The Man From U.N.C.L.E. but Widows is the first film that allows her to truly show off her acting skills. As for Ms. Yeoh, now that the Academy has come to its senses and derailed the whole Best Popular Film scheme, don't rule out voters recognizing the film with a mention in this category.
Best Director: Sure Bets
Bradley Cooper would appear to have a Best Director nomination sewed up with A Star Is Born. After that, the picture gets a bit blurry.
Best Director: In The Running
Barry Jenkins' brilliant follow-up to the also brilliant Moonlight puts him on this category's short list. The same with Spike Lee for BlacKkKlansman. It will be interesting to see if the Academy holds it against Alfonso Cuaron that Roma is being considered a Netflix release. The thought here is that he will probably score a nomination. An Oscar will definitely be more elusive. Damien Chazelle's First Man, as mentioned above, hasn't been the critical darling that La La Land was but he could score a nomination. The director to watch here is Steve McQueen for Widows, whose name is being mentioned more and more in Oscar conversations I've overheard.
Best Director: Long Shots
Marielle Heller from Can You Ever Forgive Me could pull a surprise, as could Joel Edgerton for Boy Erased. If Mary, Queen of Scots is as gripping as it looks to be, Josie Rourke could figure into the conversation as could Adam McKay for Vice. Lastly, your long shot in this category is Bo Burnham, director of Eighth Grade. Not just because the film is an unexpected pleasure but also that he went to my high school, though I doubt Academy voters will keep that in mind when filling out their ballots.
As always, Oscar front runners will come and go as the year ends and the "Silly Season" of January and February heats up. Look for updated projections once all the films are released this holiday season.
I have over 20 years of studio experience in the film business and am the Founder and CEO of Scout 53 Entertainment Consulting, which provides global film business analysis, content distribution and revenue generation opportunities for cinemas, producers and in-theatre tech ...
Post time 7-11-2018 08:22 AMFrom the mobile phone|Show all posts
dauswq replied at 6-11-2018 11:49 PM
kau rase nek yeoh ade peluang besar tak tercalon kali ni?
teringin nak tgk malaysian pertama terc ...
Aku mcm 50 50 pasal peluang nek yeoh ni. Kalau tercalon pun maybe dia akan swap position dgn Natalie Portman sbb lagi 4 org tu mcm dah locked utk nominasi.
ikutkan crazy rich asian ni pun diorg push utk kategori baru oscar- filem popular terbaik
susah jugak nek yeoh nak tercalon kalau awal2 dh ade prejudis terhadap filemnya.
same case happens to lupita ngongyo , filem black panter tu pun dgr2 diorg push utk kategori baru tu gak
jd chance dia tercalon supporting actress tu agak slim jugak
unless lupita delivered splendid memorable performance mcm mendiang health ledger dulu, in which she was not able to do so.
Post time 8-11-2018 12:39 AMFrom the mobile phone|Show all posts
dauswq replied at 7-11-2018 09:08 PM
ikutkan crazy rich asian ni pun diorg push utk kategori baru oscar- filem popular terbaik
susah j ...
Kenapa aku mcm baru tahu aje pasal ura2 nak push kategori baru kat oscar ni?? Ermmmmmmm kena aktif balik ni bertandang kat forum2 awards antarabangsa! Hehe
Pasal lupita tu, biasa2 aje la watak dia dlm black panther, bagi aku watak si Shuri tu lg menyerlah.
Author
Post time 15-9-2018 08:52 PM
