Solar peak expected in 2011-2012
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The peak of the next sunspot cycle isexpected in late 2011 or mid-2012 -- potentially affecting airlineflights, communications satellites and electrical transmissions. Butforecasters can't agree on how intense it will be.A 12-memberpanel charged with forecasting the solar cycle said Wednesday it isevenly split over whether the peak will be 90 sunspots or 140 sunspots.
Thegovernment's Space Environment Center in Boulder, Colorado, tracksspace weather and forecasts its changes, which can affect millions ofdollars worth of activities such as oil drilling, car navigationsystems and astronauts.
Half of the specialists predicted amoderately strong cycle of 140 sunspots expected to peak in October of2011, while the rest called for a moderately weak cycle of 90 sunspotspeaking in August of 2012.
"We're hoping to achieve a consensussometime in the next six to 12 months," said Douglas Biesecker, a spaceenvironment center scientist who is chairman of the forecast panel.
An average solar cycle ranges from 75 to 155 sunspots.
Duringan active solar period, violent eruptions occur more often on the sun,the agency said. Solar flares and vast explosions, known as coronalmass ejections, shoot highly charged matter toward Earth.
Makingthese predictions is important for many businesses, which have beenasking for a forecast for nearly a year, Biesecker said.
Justlike coastal residents want a hurricane forecast as early as possible,so do those affected by solar activity, said Joseph Kunches, chief offorecast and analysis at the center, which is part of the NationalOceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Daniel Baker, director ofthe Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics at the University ofColorado-Boulder, noted that more than $200 billion satellites in spacecan be affected by changes in solar radiation as the cycle rises andfalls.
In addition, Baker said, other problems include:
Airlinesflying over the pole face loss of communications that could force themto use a different, longer route at an added cost of as much as$100,000 per flight.The Global Positioning System is immensely important to commerce and can be disrupted by solar activity.Operatingfloating oil rigs in the ocean requires keeping them positioned withina few inches to prevent damaging drilling gear. "They have to know whenGPS is going to be accurate."There is an increased radiation risk to humans in space.Currents can be induced in long electrical transmission lines, causing blackouts.In the past, such problems have been caused by solar superstorms, he said.
"Stormsdon't have to be so super any more" to cause problems, Baker said, asmore and more systems become susceptible to solar effects.
W.Dean Pesnell of NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory said the solar stormsalso can heat the Earth's upper atmosphere, causing it to expand. Thisincreases drag on satellites, slowing them down. It also affects theposition of the space debris encircling the planet, and it is essentialto keep track of that debris for the safety of space flight.
Theforecasters said the current solar cycle will probably end next March,when Solar Cycle 24 will begin. That will mean Cycle 23 lasted 12years, slightly longer than the usual 11-year cycle.
Persoalannya sudahkah kita bersedia....:L bencana pd tahun 2012? seperti yang diramal oleh bangsa mayan...
Reply #2 johnconan's post
Bukan bencana tu.. Pasal aktiviti kat matahari tu, dah lama diketahui yang sunspot tu berlaku ikut cycle.. Macam graf kat bawah ni...http://helios.gsfc.nasa.gov/cycle1.gif
Benda ni memang beri effect besar pada sektor angkasa dan aerospace.. Sebab tu bila kita buat apa2 benda untuk dihantar ke space, dua perkataan yang penting adalah "Space proven" dan "Radiation hardened"..
Bila sunspot banyak, aktiviti solar wind akan meningkat dan ia akan "membunuh" satelit-satelit di angkasa... Kalau tak silap, tahun 1997 TELSTAR mati sebab ni... weh, ye ke? haku lom kawen lagi.... :lol: tgk dokementari tv 1 ' solar storm'..pasti akan berlaku...:loveliness: ooooo...ini ler solar storm cycle yg 11 thn yg lecturer aku dok citer dlm kelas dulu...haku hengat sangat sbb lecturer tuh siap ltk soklan dlm test...tp skang pun haku rs panas tak hengat gak nihhhhh... Saya rasa kamu tak sedar berapa serious ke masalah ini nanti.
Kalau Solar Storm melanda Bumi, maka kemungkinan setiap peralatan electronik akan terjejas - drpd traffic light, sampailah ke unit2 kecemasan di Hospital.
Negara2 di Dunia mungkin akan tinggal dlm kegelapan utk satu jangka masa yg lama - antara setahun ataupun lebih dr itu sampai transformer dan generator electrik boleh di baikipulih.
Peralatan Komunikasi mungkin tidak akan berfungsi lagi - utk jangkamasa yg lama. Tak ada TV, radio, Internet, Short-wave Radio dan mungkin tak ada PS2 ( :'().
Rusuhan serta anarki akan berlaku dgn mudah, spt mana ia berlaku di Los Angeles dulu. Tetapi kali ini, ianya akan berlaku di negara2 spt Malaysia. negara mana lagi yg pernah kena?
Reply #8 aLFa_SieRRa's post
tahun 40-an, kabel dasar laut di atlantik kalau tak silap pernah mengalirkan arus yang berlebihan akibat aruhan yang dihasilkan solar storm ni.tahun 70-an, stesen janakuasa elektrik di Britain meletup.
tahun 89, Quebec bergelap..
Ni apa yang pernah berlaku akibat solar storm...
Yang sentiasa berlaku adalah aurora di kutub....
Kali ni, kita risau kerana kita dah banyak bergantung kepada teknologi satelit. Dari telekomunikasi hingga la pengangkutan, semua bergantung pada satelit.. Cuba bayangkan Measat 3 rosak, tiada la ASTRO.. Bayangkan GPS rosak, ia efek kepada kapal terbang, kapal, pendaki, pengembara dan sebagainya... Tp GPS ada banyak satelit, jadi ketepatan yang dikurangkan..
di permukaan bumi, bergantung pada nasib la.. Kalau CME berlaku dan ia cukup kuat, area yang siang, ada kesan la.. seram plak dgr :funk:
hrp2 x terjadi kat m'sia nanti.
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